No Bebop

Sen. Arlen Specter just pissed in the Republicans’ flower patch, announcing he would switch to the Democratic party and run for re-election as a Democrat next year. The announcement came with almost no forewarning to any name brand Republicans, although the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette got reactions from ex-Sen. Rick Santorum and Peg Luksik, the anti-abortion absolutist who almost got the Republican nod for governor of Pennsylvania once and has since run as a third-party gubernatorial candidate.

This doesn’t come as that much of a surprise, given the recent poll putting Pat Toomey, the guy who almost beat Specter for the Republican nod in 2004, some 20 points ahead among GOP voters in the 2010 primary. My guess was that Specter would declare himself an independent, setting up a three-way race in the general election. In that scenario, with Toomey, a Democrat to be named later and Specter, I’d give the incumbent 40 percent and the election, no matter who the Democrat was. It would also spare him the need to split with the Republican caucus and keep him from making too many enemies too soon. Especially because he now makes the Democrats’ 60th vote for cloture (or he will once Al Franken is seated, but I expect the GOP will ramp up its campaign of obstruction even more with today’s developments).

So give Arlen credit for skipping the halfway measures, no doubt because of the hammering he took from fellow GOPers for supporting Obama’s stimulus.

Moderation has been good for Specter. Though he once long ago was a Democrat, he’s been a Republican for as long as he’s had a national profile, going back some 30 years. Despite that, he has had better than average relationships across the aisle, partly because Pennsylvania Democrats have historically been a rather conservative lot compared to the national party. I expect he’ll get almost unanimous support from the state’s elected Democrats, starting at the top with his former protege Gov. Ed Rendell, and right on down the line through the legislative caucuses.

This is a shame, as I don’t think any more of Specter as a moderate than Republicans do. His departures from conventional wisdom seem to be more about expediency than principle. He’s the guy who sponsored and voted for the Employee Free Choice Act two years ago and who came out last week and said he’ll do no such thing now that there’s a chance it will pass. This despite the fact that labor practically guaranteed him a free ride for re-election as a Republican if he stuck to his guns. Even his pro-choice credentials are suspect; in election years he votes 100 percent NARAL-approved positions, then he votes for every anti-abortion judicial candidate who comes down the pike, including Strip-Search Sammy and Clarence “Coke-Can” Thomas.

So it seems to me that the spotlight now goes off Pa.’s Republican Senate primary and onto the Democrats’. The national party pre-empted the 2006 primary by practically railroading Bob Casey Jr. into the race, disappointing more liberal Dems who wanted a candidate who was at least pro-choice if nothing else. There was a fear that 2006 would be a rerun of 2000, when Santorum was reelected against Ron Klink, a former weatherman who was also anti-abortion.

Thankfully that didn’t happen, mainly because Klink had absolutely no name recognition outside his congressional district, whose boundaries were roughly concurrent with the broadcast reach of the TV station he used to work for. Bob Casey — well, name recognition was not only not a problem, but I’m pretty sure that some 15 percent of the voters thought they were voting for Bob’s dad, the former governor.

Nevertheless, I’m tired of Arlen and his twist-with-the-wind “convictions.” Since he says he won’t support EFCA even as a Democrat, labor is off the hook for its promise of support. So let’s get some real Democrats into the primary — folks who won’t have to be arm-twisted to support the Democratic agenda over the objections of 40 “Dr. Nos” in the minority.

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